County-level election research
Most counties aren't swinging. The country is moving around them.
A county's raw margin mixes together two different things: how that place votes, and what the nation did that year. Separate them and the picture changes — places that look volatile turn out to be on straight lines, and places that look stable turn out to be realigning.
2024, built from the counties up
Select any state. Alaska is shown at its true grain — house districts, not boroughs.
20 Democratic · 31 Republican
National two-party margin
2000
D+0.6
2004
R+2.5
2008
D+7.4
2012
D+4.0
2016
D+2.2
2020
D+4.5
2024
R+1.5
Trending Democratic
Largest movement toward Democrats since 2000, after removing the national swing.
Among the 976 counties casting 25,000+ votes in 2024, of 3,111 with a full seven-cycle record.
Trending Republican
Largest movement toward Republicans on the same basis.
Among the 976 counties casting 25,000+ votes in 2024, of 3,111 with a full seven-cycle record.
Truest bellwethers
Smallest average gap from the national margin — counties that track the country, not ones that merely pick winners.
Among the 976 counties casting 25,000+ votes in 2024, of 3,111 with a full seven-cycle record.