2024
R+47.7marginDonald TrumpRep
25,456
73.4%
Kamala HarrisDem
8,914
25.7%
All other candidates
300
0.9%
34,670 ballots cast · 52.9 per 100 residents (2024 population estimate)
Residents65,579+1.9% since 2020 (+1,209 people)
Rutherford County
North Carolina·FIPS 37161·65,745 residents (2025 estimate)
2024 result
R+47.7
34,670 ballots cast
What happened: the county's margin each cycle, against the national result.
Lean vs. nation
R+46.6
How this county sits relative to the country in 2024, with the national environment removed.
Trend since 2000
-17.7 pts
Net movement of that lean across 7 cycles — toward Republicans.
Elasticity
0.25
Largely unmoved by the national mood.
Bellwether error
40.8
Average gap between this county's margin and the nation's.
Votes by candidate
7 cyclesCertified vote counts for each party's nominee, the combined total for everyone else on the ballot, the number of ballots cast, and how many people lived here at the time.
2020
R+45.8marginDonald TrumpRep
24,891
72.3%
Joe BidenDem
9,135
26.5%
All other candidates
403
1.2%
34,429 ballots cast · 53.5 per 100 residents (2020 population estimate)
Residents64,370−2.9% since 2016 (−1,916 people)
Measured across a change of Census vintage. The two series share no common year, so how far apart they sit cannot be measured — this change carries an unknown amount of revision on top of four years of real change.
2016
R+47.4marginDonald TrumpRep
21,871
72.2%
Hillary ClintonDem
7,512
24.8%
All other candidates
924
3.0%
30,307 ballots cast · 45.7 per 100 residents (2016 population estimate)
Residents66,286−1.4% since 2012 (−929 people)
2012
R+33.4marginMitt RomneyRep
18,954
66.0%
Barack ObamaDem
9,374
32.7%
All other candidates
374
1.3%
28,702 ballots cast · 42.7 per 100 residents (2012 population estimate)
Residents67,215+0.1% since 2008 (+70 people)
Measured across a change of Census vintage. Where the two vintages overlap, 96% of counties agree within 0.5%, so read this figure to about half a point and no finer.
2008
R+31.8marginJohn McCainRep
18,769
65.4%
Barack ObamaDem
9,641
33.6%
All other candidates
310
1.1%
28,720 ballots cast · 42.8 per 100 residents (2008 population estimate)
Residents67,145+3.8% since 2004 (+2,453 people)
2004
R+33.1marginGeorge W. BushRep
16,343
66.3%
John KerryDem
8,184
33.2%
All other candidates
131
0.5%
24,658 ballots cast · 38.1 per 100 residents (2004 population estimate)
Residents64,692+2.6% since 2000 (+1,628 people)
2000
R+27.9marginGeorge W. BushRep
13,755
63.3%
Al GoreDem
7,697
35.4%
All other candidates
264
1.2%
21,716 ballots cast · 34.4 per 100 residents (2000 population estimate)
Residents63,064
“All other candidates” is every remaining line on the presidential ballot combined — minor parties, independents and write-ins where the state reports them. Shares are of all ballots cast, so the three rows sum to 100%.
Ballots cast per 100 residents is not a turnout rate. It measures votes against every resident — children and non-citizens included — not against eligible or registered voters, which is what turnout means and which this site does not have a county-level figure for. It is shown only where an election year and a population estimate share the same year and describe the same territory; where the Census figure is stated on boundaries the vote was not cast on, the card says so and the ratio is withheld.
A change in residents is not a change in voters. The percentage beside each year is the change in resident population since the previous presidential election — everyone who lives here, including children and non-citizens. It is not turnout, not registration, and not the same quantity as the change in ballots cast. Population is measured on 1 July of the election year, four months before the vote, which is the closest an annual series gets to election day.
Population figures on this page come from 3 Census series: PEP intercensal county estimates, 2000–2010; PEP vintage 2019 county estimates, 2010–2019; PEP vintage 2025 county estimates, 2020–2025. The 2012 and 2020 figures are the first in a new series, so the change shown for those years is measured across a change of Census method as well as across four years. Each of those cards says so. Two figures drawn from different vintages are not two readings of one series.
Every cycle
| Year | Margin | Lean | Swing | Rel. swing | Votes | 3rd party |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R+47.7 | R+46.6 | -1.8 | +4.2 | 34,670 | 0.9% |
| 2020 | R+45.8 | R+50.8 | +2.6 | +0.3 | 34,429 | 1.2% |
| 2016 | R+47.4 | R+51.1 | -15.1 | -13.3 | 30,307 | 3.0% |
| 2012 | R+33.4 | R+37.8 | -1.7 | +1.7 | 28,702 | 1.3% |
| 2008 | R+31.8 | R+39.5 | +1.1 | -8.7 | 28,720 | 1.1% |
| 2004 | R+33.1 | R+30.8 | -5.0 | -1.9 | 24,658 | 0.5% |
| 2000 | R+27.9 | R+28.9 | — | — | 21,716 | 1.2% |
Margin is over all votes cast. Lean is the two-party margin minus the nation's — the county's own position with the national environment removed. Relative swing is the change in that lean. “Votes” is the number of ballots cast in the presidential contest, not a share of eligible voters.
Counties on a similar trajectory
Down-ballot results, 2024
22 racesEvery local contest on this county's ballot — commissioners, school board, municipal offices and special districts — resolved from precinct-level returns.
County · 3
Municipal · 10
City Council
7.4% marginForest City town
- ✓Dee Dee BrightNonpartisan1,71327.6%
- Chris LeeNonpartisan1,25420.2%
- Joey BrandleNonpartisan98315.8%
+4 more candidates
Commissioner
2.2% marginSpindale town
- ✓Nancy B WalkerNonpartisan73220.6%
- Amy Austin CowanNonpartisan65418.4%
- Glen HarmonNonpartisan55015.5%
+5 more candidates
City Council
8.6% marginRutherfordton town
- ✓Douglas SheetsNonpartisan96439.4%
- Alan J HerrickNonpartisan75530.9%
- Bobby Ray Miller JrNonpartisan68428.0%
+1 more candidates
Commissioner
11.1% marginLake Lure town
- ✓Chris Patrick BryantNonpartisan62954.0%
- Dave DiorioNonpartisan50042.9%
- Write-InNonpartisan373.2%
Mayor
43.7% marginLake Lure town
- ✓Carol C PritchettNonpartisan56465.3%
- Jonathan HinkleNonpartisan18721.7%
- Jonathan CrawfordNonpartisan10211.8%
+1 more candidates
City Council
5.1% marginEllenboro town
- ✓Allan "Bunt" BlackNonpartisan23037.0%
- Bill GreeneNonpartisan19831.8%
- Sandra B WeeksNonpartisan16326.2%
+1 more candidates
Commissioner
1.4% marginBostic town
- ✓Wesley FlynnNonpartisan12028.0%
- Travis HaynesNonpartisan11426.6%
- Charlie WallNonpartisan10624.8%
+2 more candidates
Mayor
84.9% marginEllenboro town
- ✓Liz BlantonNonpartisan24592.5%
- Write-InNonpartisan207.5%
+2 more municipal races
School board · 4
Board of Education001
51.5% marginRutherford County
- ✓Angel KingRepublican25,16175.8%
- Doyle G BrownDemocratic8,05324.3%
Board of Education
UnopposedRutherford County
- ✓Phillip MorrowRepublican27,312100.0%
Board of Education003
UnopposedRutherford County
- ✓Thomas CrawfordRepublican27,013100.0%
Board of Education002
UnopposedRutherford County
- ✓Tracy ShortRepublican26,904100.0%
Special district · 2
Judicial · 3
Court of Appeals
0.21% marginNorth Carolina
- ✓Valerie ZacharyRepublican2,878,74517.4%
- Chris FreemanRepublican2,844,01317.2%
- Tom MurryRepublican2,809,21317.0%
+3 more candidates
Supreme Court006
0.00% marginNorth Carolina
- ✓Allison RiggsDemocratic2,769,62350.0%
- Jefferson G GriffinRepublican2,769,55750.0%
District Court Judge041, SEAT 04
UnopposedNorth Carolina
- ✓Corey J MackinnonRepublican46,690100.0%
Sources
Presidential returns from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab (County Presidential Returns 2000–2024, CC0). Geography and FIPS codes from the US Census Bureau (public domain). Where a state reports both a total and per-mode vote counts, the reported total is used.
Resident population from the US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program (Vintage 2025), measured as of July 1, 2025. Resident population — all residents, including children and non-citizens. Not an electorate, and not comparable to a vote total as a turnout rate. Conclusions drawn from it are ours, not the Bureau's.
Population at each election is measured on 1 July of the election year and comes from the US Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program (public domain). The 2000–2024 span is covered by several separately estimated vintages of that programme rather than by one continuous series — the ones used on this page are named under the cycle cards, and every change measured across a boundary between them is marked there. Notes about territory changing hands come from this site's own change ledger and are only as complete as it is.