2024
D+11.9marginKamala HarrisDem
218,981
55.0%
Donald TrumpRep
171,435
43.1%
All other candidates
7,571
1.9%
397,987 ballots cast
Residentsnot published
PEP vintage 2025 county estimates, 2020–2025 — no row for this unit.
New Haven County
Connecticut·FIPS 09009·county nonfunctioning·857,901 residents (2016 estimate — the last one published)
The Census Bureau has no current estimate for this unit — no longer a current unit as of the 2024 Census geography, so PEP publishes no current estimate for it — but it published one through 2016, and that history is shown against each election below.
2024 result
D+11.9
397,987 ballots cast
Comparability note
Connecticut retired its eight counties as statistical county-equivalents and adopted nine councils of government as planning regions.
The planning regions do not nest inside the old counties — Shelton moved from Fairfield to Naugatuck Valley, and Litchfield County has no single successor. Any county-to-region crosswalk is wrong by whole towns. Rebuild both vintages by summing the 169 towns (county subdivisions), which are stable across the change. Exact in both directions.
What happened: the county's margin each cycle, against the national result.
Lean vs. nation
D+13.7
How this county sits relative to the country in 2024, with the national environment removed.
Trend since 2000
-9.1 pts
Net movement of that lean across 7 cycles — toward Republicans.
Elasticity
1.12
Moves roughly in step with the country.
Bellwether error
15.4
Average gap between this county's margin and the nation's.
Votes by candidate
7 cyclesCertified vote counts for each party's nominee, the combined total for everyone else on the ballot, the number of ballots cast, and how many people lived here at the time.
2020
D+17.4marginJoe BidenDem
242,630
58.0%
Donald TrumpRep
169,893
40.6%
All other candidates
5,460
1.3%
417,983 ballots cast
Residentsnot published
PEP vintage 2025 county estimates, 2020–2025 — no row for this unit.
2016
D+12.3marginHillary ClintonDem
205,609
54.2%
Donald TrumpRep
159,048
42.0%
All other candidates
14,349
3.8%
379,006 ballots cast · 44.2 per 100 residents (2016 population estimate)
Residents857,901−0.8% since 2012 (−6,665 people)
2012
D+22.3marginBarack ObamaDem
218,972
60.7%
Mitt RomneyRep
138,357
38.3%
All other candidates
3,697
1.0%
361,026 ballots cast · 41.8 per 100 residents (2012 population estimate)
Residents864,566+0.9% since 2008 (+7,944 people)
Measured across a change of Census vintage. Where the two vintages overlap, 96% of counties agree within 0.5%, so read this figure to about half a point and no finer.
2008
D+23.1marginBarack ObamaDem
232,820
61.0%
John McCainRep
144,465
37.8%
All other candidates
4,454
1.2%
381,739 ballots cast · 44.6 per 100 residents (2008 population estimate)
Residents856,622+1.4% since 2004 (+12,117 people)
2004
D+10.6marginJohn KerryDem
199,060
54.3%
George W. BushRep
160,390
43.8%
All other candidates
6,942
1.9%
366,392 ballots cast · 43.4 per 100 residents (2004 population estimate)
Residents844,505+2.4% since 2000 (+19,594 people)
2000
D+22.0marginAl GoreDem
197,928
58.0%
George W. BushRep
122,919
36.0%
All other candidates
20,252
5.9%
341,099 ballots cast · 41.3 per 100 residents (2000 population estimate)
Residents824,911
“All other candidates” is every remaining line on the presidential ballot combined — minor parties, independents and write-ins where the state reports them. Shares are of all ballots cast, so the three rows sum to 100%.
Ballots cast per 100 residents is not a turnout rate. It measures votes against every resident — children and non-citizens included — not against eligible or registered voters, which is what turnout means and which this site does not have a county-level figure for. It is shown only where an election year and a population estimate share the same year and describe the same territory; where the Census figure is stated on boundaries the vote was not cast on, the card says so and the ratio is withheld.
A change in residents is not a change in voters. The percentage beside each year is the change in resident population since the previous presidential election — everyone who lives here, including children and non-citizens. It is not turnout, not registration, and not the same quantity as the change in ballots cast. Population is measured on 1 July of the election year, four months before the vote, which is the closest an annual series gets to election day.
Population figures on this page come from 2 Census series: PEP intercensal county estimates, 2000–2010; PEP vintage 2019 county estimates, 2010–2019. The 2012 figure is the first in a new series, so the change shown for that year is measured across a change of Census method as well as across four years. Each of those cards says so. Two figures drawn from different vintages are not two readings of one series.
2 cycles on this page (2020, 2024) have no population figure. The reason is stated on the card rather than left as a blank, and no change is computed from a missing baseline.
The Census no longer estimates this unit: no longer a current unit as of the 2024 Census geography, so PEP publishes no current estimate for it. Its population series therefore ends at 2016 (857,901 residents), while presidential returns are still reported on it. That is a change in what the Census publishes, not a place that stopped existing.
Every cycle
| Year | Margin | Lean | Swing | Rel. swing | Votes | 3rd party |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D+11.9 | D+13.7 | -5.5 | +0.6 | 397,987 | 1.9% |
| 2020 | D+17.4 | D+13.1 | +4.9 | +2.6 | 417,983 | 1.3% |
| 2016 | D+12.3 | D+10.6 | -9.8 | -8.0 | 379,006 | 3.8% |
| 2012 | D+22.3 | D+18.6 | -0.9 | +2.5 | 361,026 | 1.0% |
| 2008 | D+23.1 | D+16.1 | +12.7 | +2.8 | 381,739 | 1.2% |
| 2004 | D+10.6 | D+13.2 | -12.6 | -9.5 | 366,392 | 1.9% |
| 2000 | D+22.0 | D+22.8 | — | — | 341,099 | 5.9% |
Margin is over all votes cast. Lean is the two-party margin minus the nation's — the county's own position with the national environment removed. Relative swing is the change in that lean. “Votes” is the number of ballots cast in the presidential contest, not a share of eligible voters.
Counties on a similar trajectory
Sources
Presidential returns from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab (County Presidential Returns 2000–2024, CC0). Geography and FIPS codes from the US Census Bureau (public domain). Where a state reports both a total and per-mode vote counts, the reported total is used.
Population at each election is measured on 1 July of the election year and comes from the US Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program (public domain). The 2000–2024 span is covered by several separately estimated vintages of that programme rather than by one continuous series — the ones used on this page are named under the cycle cards, and every change measured across a boundary between them is marked there. Notes about territory changing hands come from this site's own change ledger and are only as complete as it is.