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MIDTERMS101dHOUSE435 seatsSENATE~33 upTO WIN270 EVThe GuardianTrump’s speech devolves into list of gripes and nasty attacks on opponents – US politics live The GuardianTrump escalates Smithsonian attack with order for signs outside history museum The GuardianAppeals court denies Trump’s bid to allow $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas The GuardianJudge rules FDA restrictions on mifepristone are arbitrary and capricious NPRDemocrats approve new primary election calendar, putting South Carolina first NPRICC member states vote to remove chief prosecutor Karim Khan The GuardianTrump administration admits canceling clean energy grants to Democratic states NPRSt. Louis Democratic House primary exposes party rifts over Israel NPRTrump's replacement tariffs continue to put pressure on U.S. economy NPRICC member nations vote to remove chief prosecutor The GuardianIf Trump really cares about forced labor, he should look at the US – rather than slap more tariffs on the world | Eduardo Porter CNBCTrump's new global tariff draws rebukes from trade partners over forced labor justification NPROil surges to $100 per barrel. And, Trump imposes a new round of tariffs NPRTrump threatens a major escalation in Iran after 13 straight nights of strikesMIDTERMS101dHOUSE435 seatsSENATE~33 upTO WIN270 EVThe GuardianTrump’s speech devolves into list of gripes and nasty attacks on opponents – US politics live The GuardianTrump escalates Smithsonian attack with order for signs outside history museum The GuardianAppeals court denies Trump’s bid to allow $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas The GuardianJudge rules FDA restrictions on mifepristone are arbitrary and capricious NPRDemocrats approve new primary election calendar, putting South Carolina first NPRICC member states vote to remove chief prosecutor Karim Khan The GuardianTrump administration admits canceling clean energy grants to Democratic states NPRSt. Louis Democratic House primary exposes party rifts over Israel NPRTrump's replacement tariffs continue to put pressure on U.S. economy NPRICC member nations vote to remove chief prosecutor The GuardianIf Trump really cares about forced labor, he should look at the US – rather than slap more tariffs on the world | Eduardo Porter CNBCTrump's new global tariff draws rebukes from trade partners over forced labor justification NPROil surges to $100 per barrel. And, Trump imposes a new round of tariffs NPRTrump threatens a major escalation in Iran after 13 straight nights of strikes

Elections

Five Numbers That Will Decide the Midterms

Forget the horse race for a second. These are the metrics that actually move seats.

Politigoat Data DeskThursday, July 16, 2026

If you only track five things between now and November, make them these.

1. The generic ballot

"Which party's candidate would you support for Congress?" It's the single best national indicator of the House environment — and its trend matters more than any one reading.

2. Presidential approval

The party in the White House almost always underperforms when the president's approval is underwater. It's a gravitational pull on every competitive race.

3. The retirement count

Open seats flip far more often than incumbents lose. A wave of retirements on one side is an early tell about where the map is bending.

4. Primary turnout

Which side is showing up to vote in low-stakes primaries is a leading indicator of enthusiasm for November.

5. Small-dollar fundraising

Not the totals — the number of donors. A surge of new small-dollar givers signals grassroots energy that money alone can't buy.

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